DR. TARAS KUZIO: ON THE 5th ANNIVERSARY OF THE 2014 UKRAINIAN REVOLUTION, EUROMAIDAN REVOLUTION, OR REVOLUTION OF DIGNITY (Революція гідності)

DR. TARAS KUZIO: ON THE 5th ANNIVERSARY OF THE 2014 UKRAINIAN REVOLUTION, EUROMAIDAN REVOLUTION, OR REVOLUTION OF DIGNITY (Революція гідності)

Dr.Taras Kuzio has British citizenship, but is based in Toronto, Canada. He is an expert in Ukrainian affairs, has received a BA in Economics from the University of Sussex, an MA in Soviet Studies from the University of London, he holds a Ph.D in political science from the University of Birmingham, and now he is a postdoctoral fellow at Yale University. He spoke in the non-sponsored Uke Tube Ukrainian Video, on the 5^th anniversary of the 2014 Euromaidan revolution. Below are the full remarks of that video

(https://www.facebook.com/uketube/videos/2226210774324495/).

The Revolution of dignity occurred five years ago beginning on 21 November 2013 culminating in the revolution on 18-23 February 2014. Review of positive and negative points.

Ukrainian Diaspora discussion forums seem to ignore election of Donald Trump and Brexit referendum: Polls should be ignored with regard to the next Ukrainian presidential elections.

Positive: Compare post-Euromaidan vs post-Orange revolution. Yuschenko era was depressing to watch. Ukrainians were disillusioned compared to Euromaidan. Domestic progress made in economic reforms, financial reforms, social reforms, energy sector reforms. Ukraine created large number of institutions to fight corruption. Some difficulty getting traction, but they won't be dismantled, and will produce results.

Wired Magazine article on transparent government contracts and procurement process described Ukraine's new online government contract bidding process as "one of the best in the world"

(https://www.wired.co.uk/article/ukraine-revolution-government-procurement?fbclid=IwAR1smyOr7kdCVzThyZZY9QNJkOjuAW66rhp6QYGZO3NhiQf3db4hksi6vdQ). Closing of loopholes in Ukraine is saving up to $6 billion per year. Banking system in Ukraine is approximately 50% smaller prior to 2014 - many banks were simply laundering institutions, e.g. Ihor Kolomoyskyi's (ПриватБанк) laundered $5.5 billion over ten years, was closed in 2016. Kolomoyskyi is angry at Poroshenko over this loss and this is why he is supporting Yulia Tymoshenko's presidential campaign. Value added tax (VAT) refunds. Нафтогаз України previously consumed 3-5% of Ukraine's government budget. Today it is the largest contributor to the budget, no longer a cash-cow for corrupt presidents. Jailing elites has been problematic. Whoever is elected in 2019 must produce results with Ukraine's anti-corruption court, i.e. putting people in jail. Household utility prices in Ukraine are better now. Yulia Tymoshenko claims she is pro-EU and pro-NATO. But she is lying when she says she is anti-IMF and pro-EU.

Nation building in Ukraine has been successful. New draft law in front of parliament promotes Ukrainian language even further. Ukraine adopted requirement, quotas for Ukrainian language content in television, radio, print (similar to Quebec). Tremendous progress moving beyond the Soviet-past, communist past: laws on #Decommunization and removal of all Lenin monuments in Ukraine. Changing names of streets, villages, and towns, not to be linked to the communist past, Soviet past. Decentralization has been successful. More money is now being kept locally.

Spiritual independence: The granting of autocephaly to Ukraine is one of President Poroshenko's greatest achievements. This is comparable to the disintegration of the USSR in 1991.Leonid kravchuk, the first President of Ukraine from December 1991 to July 1994. Putin wants Russian World (Русский мир) as a new substitute for the USSR. New monument to Volodymyr the Great in Moscow is ludicrous since Moscow (and Russia) didn't exist in 988 when Kyiv-Rus was Christianized. Ukraine has achieved its spiritual independence from Russia. As of November 2018, Constantinople made their decision, there is no Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine. Tomos of autocephaly to be granted prior to Ukrainian presidential election, 2019 We can already see cracks in the Russian Orthodox Church. One of the biggest myths in Ukraine is that East Ukraine is Orthodox and West Ukraine is Catholic. Most Orthodox parishes are in central and Western Ukraine. Few churches are in Donbas. Who will head the new Ukrainian Orthodox Church? Not everyone wants Patriarch Filaret (Denysenko).

Russia's military aggression against Ukraine had the biggest impact on Russian speakers and ethnic Russians who sided with Ukraine against Putin. Collapse of Russian soft-power in Ukraine, e.g. elites and mutual corruption, energy sector (Компромат), lost leverage in Russian TV, Russian books, Russian social media. Loss of Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine. Putin must be very frustrated and angry. Pro-Russian forces can no longer come to power in Ukraine. 16% of voters in Ukraine - who voted for Yanukovych, etc. - now live in Crimea, the occupied bt Russia Ukrainian territory

According to Paul D'Anieri the occupation of Crimea and part of the Donbas will prevent roughly 12 percent of Ukrainian voters from participating in elections

(https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0888325418791020?fbclid=IwAR3K4moBDmZGggAq81u8W8gn5jDsNk6BynvHAouIEnVxBY8L-sJWaneNN_s&journalCode=eepa),. These voters voted disproportionately for candidates and parties that supported closer ties with Russia. This article quantifies the changes to the electorate and projects the likely partisan impact. The changes decisively tip the Ukrainian electorate away from the east and south. Candidates and parties can no longer expect to build a national majority primarily in eastern and southern Ukraine, as Viktor Yanukovych did in 2010 and the Party of Regions in 2012. Anticipating these effects, Ukraine’s government could seek to prolong these voters’ exclusion, while Russia could actually seek to end the occupation to get them re-included. The implication is that various actors could try to “gerrymander” the entire Ukrainian state, a phenomenon that previously has only been explored at the district level, within states. This raises the broader question of how electoral effects shape the many territorial disputes around the world.

Ukraine's national security is good. Ukraine today has the best army in its history.
Sanctions by USA, Canada, and Europe continue to be increased. Sanctions will remain in place until Russia returns Crimea to Ukraine. See also Russia’s chemical poisoning of Sergei Skripal. US-Ukraine strategic partnership is alive and well: When Trump was elected Moscow celebrated and Kyiv worried. Today this has inverted completely. Trump sent military equipment to Ukraine. Obama betrayed Ukraine in 2014.

Power and influence of oligarchs in Ukraine has declined: Ihor Kolomoyskyi is in exile in Switzerland, Rinat Akhmetov lost assets due to war in Donbas, gas lobby weakened. Huge number of Ukrainians themselves are involved in corruption.